The one and only Phoenix Jones
By the Secret Psychic Spy, WrestlingObserver.com
– Starting Bankroll: $1,000
– Current Bankroll: $971.52
– Last week: 4/5
– Overall: 38/62 (61%)
Another successful week last week going 4/5. If you were following my original advice, and not my example, by sizing your bets equally you’d be way up at that point. Right now I’m back almost to my starting bankroll but this weekend looks promising and 4 of the 5 picks I’m recommending are underdogs so there’s the potential for some big returns here. All of the big 3 are running cards this weekend. I’m steering clear of the Bellator show as I just don’t see any value in any of the picks there. I’ve got one pick from the WSOF show and 4 from tomorrow afternoon’s UFC.
Pick 1 (from WSOF 20): Ben Fodor (aka Phoenix Jones) (6-0-1) -145 over Steve Mocco (7-2-1) I’m wagering $80 to win $55.17
This is my only favorite this week and in my opinion, it should be a gimme. Fodor/Jones may have a gimmick but he’s a real fighter. He’s unbeaten and most of his career has been on broadcast shows, which is unusual for a fighter 7 fights into his career. Most of his wins have been by finish. Walo is coming off a KO loss and I think he’s here as fodder for Fodor, who is a potential future star.
Pick 2 (from UFC Fight Night 64): Isabela Badurek (5-2) +185 over Aleksandra Albu (1-0) I’m wagering $80 to win $148
Albu has not fought since June of 2013, almost 2 years. That was her only career fight. What’s she been doing since then? Badurek has submitted her opponents in all 5 of her career wins and is far more active, with 4 fights since Albu last fought. With decent odds on her, I’d say Badurek by early sub looks pretty good here.
Pick 3 (from UFC Fight Night 64): Pawel Pawlak (10-1) +175 over Sheldon Westcott (8-2-1) I’m wagering $80 to win $140
Pawlak is a huge star in Polish MMA and will have the crowd firmly behind him in this one. He’d finished every one of his opponents prior to his UFC debut last year. With the UFC jitters behind him, look for him to make the crowd very happy and end this one early over Westcott, who’s been out for a year since losing the TUF Nations finale last April.
Pick 4 (From UFC Fight Night 64): Garreth McLellan (12-2) +110 over Bartosz Fabinski (11-2) I’m wagering $80 to win $88
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I’ve seen McLellan fight on some cards from EFC Africa on GFL.TV. He’s a beast at 185 who wins most of his matches by submission. He’s won 6 fights in a row coming into his UFC debut. Fabinski is also making his debut, coming off a 4 fight win streak. One streak has to end and my money’s on McLellan.
Pick 5 (From UFC Fight Night 64): Mirko Cro Cop (30-11-2) +180 over Gabriel Gonzaga (16-9) I’m wagering $80 to win $144
I don’t often pick the main events in this column but I really like the odds for Cro Cop here. He’s relatively fresh, having fight a much lighter schedule the last few years. He’s out for revenge after being knocked out 7 years ago by Gonzaga. And Gonzaga seems like he’s lost his chin after getting destroyed by Matt Mitrione in December by first round KO. These two are at similar stages in their career and have similar worldwide MMA rankings. When you have fighters this evenly matched in the rankings and can get odds like +180 for one of them, it’s usually a good idea to jump on them and that’s what I’m doing here.
On with the betting game.
*****
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Todd Martin
Standings:
– Todd Martin: $700.24 (Picked Murphy, Silva, Nelson, Pennington, Shockley, Henderson, Woodley and Krylov)
– Secret Psychic Spy: $741.96 (Picked Carmouche, Santos, Cruickshank, Salazar, Strickland, Kelly, Lauzon and Aliev)
After a slow start this year, I took my place on top of this game and will not look back. Despite the opinions of virtually all experts, including Mr Martin I’m sure, Carmouche clearly beat Murphy fair and square last weekend to allow us to take the lead. This week, I’m going out on a limb and picking another underdog in Pawlak for the reasons listed above. I’ll have a big lead when he wins, regardless of what happens with Todd’s pick
Todd’s pick and analysis:
Taylor Lapilus -210 over Rocky Lee
UFC is desperate for Asian fighters from nations beyond just Japan and South Korea. The fighters they have signed thus far have been, to put it politely, completely terrible. So when Rocky Lee enters the Octagon with a 3-0 record and 1 win over a fighter with a winning record, color me extremely skeptical. Lapilus is a 22 year old French dude who hasn’t fought yet in the UFC because the commission refused to sanction him the first time. He’ll surely win.
Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else, let’s beat Todd!