As of early Monday evening, all three local NHL teams were in the playoff picture, making for what could be an interesting hockey winter in the metropolitan area. But the Thanksgiving Rule that most teams in playoff position by the final Thursday in November are going to make it to the postseason might not apply this year. Before play Monday, only the Sabres were more than 10 points out of a spot in the East.
So in this predicament, let us examine how each team got here and whether they might sustain or drop off.
Rangers
Second wild card, 13-9-2
What’s worked? During the 1-5-2 getaway, nothing worked. But since then, goalie Henrik Lundqvist has been sharp, the power play has been mostly humming and the defensive structure has drastically improved. Mika Zibanejad (11 goals, 22 points) has taken the role as a top center, Michael Grabner is having more early-season puck luck (10 goals) and Kevin Shattenkirk (five goals, 18 points) finally has settled in.
Will it last? The Rangers’ depth up-front is a big question, especially at center. They have some young pivots in the pipeline (Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil) who might not be ready for prime time just yet. They still heavily rely on Lundqvist, and if the defense comes in waves, they might not have the offensive firepower to win shootouts consistently.
Prediction: Could contend for playoff spot or choose to think ahead and sell off assets.
Islanders
3rd place in Metro, 14-7-2 (30 points)
What’s worked? In his contract year, John Tavares is making a case for the Hart Trophy as league MVP, already with some jaw-dropping highlight-reel plays that add up to 15 goals and 26 points in 23 games. Also in a contract year, Josh Bailey is off to a scorching start, leading the team with 23 assists and 28 points. With forward Mathew Barzal (six goals, 23 points) as a contender for the Calder Trophy as the best rookie, the offense drives this team, ranked third in the league with 3.61 goals per game.
see also
The minor injuries exposing Rangers larger depth problem
The absence of fourth-line center Boo Nieves for most of…
Will it last? Odds are Tavares will keep it up, but Bailey always has been a streaky player and Barzal still is a 20-year-old figuring out the league. They’re also giving up the ninth-most goals in the league (3.17 per), with both goalies outside of the top 20 of qualifiers in even-strength save percentage: Jaroslav Halak (92.3) and Thomas Griess (91.5). They desperately could use another strong-skating defenseman.
Prediction: Still a playoff team, but where depends on trade-deadline action.
Devils
1st place in Metro, 14-6-4 (32 points)
What’s worked? Start with No. 1-overall pick Nico Hischier, who has five goals and 18 points in his first 24 games, while the Swiss 18-year-old looks quite at home with the physicality and grit of this league. Add in reigning Hobey Baker Award winner and free-agent signee Will Butcher with 18 points and 16 assists. Cory Schneider is having a bounce-back year with a .921 save percentage, and the team also is helped by the good feelings brought by Brian Boyle’s return to the ice after a cancer diagnosis.
Will it last? It’s hard to think a team led by a rookie up-front and rookie on the back end is going to be able to stay in first place. But there has been little on the ice — only history — to think a wall is coming for either Hischier or Butcher. Not a good indicator that they’re second-to-last in the league in Corsi-For Percentage (46.48), illustrating that wins have come partially through “puck luck” and they’re likely to regress.
Prediction: The most likely team to drop off dramatically.