Regarding the Rangers, a bubble team in a bubble league:
1. It is just about impossible to find anyone in hockey who believes that Jim Dolan would authorize the Blueshirts to be sellers approaching the Feb. 26 trade deadline and thus jeopardize playoff gates that are far from a sure thing anyway.
Indeed, there are folks who believe the team will try to add a piece or two to compensate for the loss of Chris Kreider, who is all but certainly done for at least the remainder of the regular season, if not the tournament, as well.
But I’m not so sure at all that the Garden owner would choose a one-and-done or two-and-out instead of a reboot that would put the Rangers in better position to legitimately compete for the Stanley Cup in the next year or two.
Neither Dolan nor general manager Jeff Gorton should be deluded by the 22-15-5 record the Blueshirts carried into the bye week that will end Saturday afternoon with a match at the Garden against the Islanders. It’s a funhouse mirror reflection of what 2017-18 has represented.
For this is a team that rarely plays a full 60 minutes, is lacking in focus and intensity, is riddled with defensive-zone deficiencies, and has been kept afloat in shallow waters only by consistently spectacular goaltending of Hart Trophy contender Henrik Lundqvist and understudy Ondrej Pavelec, who have combined for a .936 save percentage and 2.17 GAA in 32 games since the calendar turned to November.
The Rangers have allowed the third most shot attempts in the NHL (while recording the eighth fewest attempts), have surrendered the second-most shots on goal, have the fourth-worst shots for/against percentage and are trending downward, yielding a fraction less than 37 shots per over the last 16 contests in which they have allowed 35 or more 11 times (40 or more five times).
2. So, yes, Gorton should be in aggressive listening mode, specifically on pending free agent Rick Nash, who unfortunately is playing some of the weakest hockey of his tenure in New York, having gone pointless in his last 10 games while recording just two goals and six points in 23 games going back to Nov. 17.
The winger’s decline in production isn’t likely to increase his market value, but it only takes two teams believing that No. 61 can be a missing link to a title in order to generate a bidding war. Generally, I’d say nothing less than a first-rounder would do, but given the likelihood that Nash will not be back next year under even a hometown discount, you bet Gorton should entertain offers including a second-rounder, plus.
Might the Rangers take a step back without Nash? Yes. But trading Nash would open ice time for Vinni Lettieri. And, pucks to baseballs, trading Carlos Beltran, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman at the 2016 deadline did not kneecap the Yankees for even the next two months.
But it isn’t just about Nash. It is about an attitude and philosophy approaching the deadline that the Rangers might be able to use as a mechanism to take two steps forward next year and three the year after that even if it does result in a step back this time.
3. Who is playing up to or beyond expectations? 1) Lundqvist; 2) Pavelec; 3) Michael Grabner; 4) Brady Skjei; 5) Marc Staal; 6) Jesper Fast; 7) Paul Carey; 8) Boo Nieves.
I would add Kevin Hayes, who, frustrating as he can be with the puck on his stick, has made the adjustment to becoming a matchup checking center as well as anyone could have imagined and has embraced the responsibility of being a pro.
The 25-year-old, who more likely than not will play Saturday against the Islanders after leaving a game last Sunday in Vegas early in the second period with a contusion, had offensive-zone start rates of 60.5 and 60.9 percent his first two seasons. He was at 41.2 last year — when Derek Stepan was the matchup center — and is at 40.7 this season while consistently drawing the opposition’s top centers.
The dramatic improvement at the dots also reflects the work Hayes has put it into this, going from 36.6 and 36.0 percent his first two seasons to 45.7 last year and an even 50 percent this year.
And though everyone wants Hayes to shoot more, No. 13 has launched the fourth-most attempts among Ranger forwards, tied with Kreider behind Nash, Grabner and Pavel Buchnevich, per naturalstattick.com.
4. I’m on record stating that Buchnevich should get more ice time, but the sophomore has to earn it, too. Which he did not with a careless performance Saturday in Arizona (when reinstated to first-line duty) that got him a healthy scratch the following night in Vegas.