Regarding the Rangers, as the hockey department convenes at Glen Sather’s La Quinta Western White House this week for its offseason congress:
Only one team in NHL history other than the 2012-15 Blueshirts won as many as eight playoff rounds over four years and failed to win the Stanley Cup. The Bruins of 1988-91 won nine series while the overlapping B’s of 1989-92 won eight and came away with Cups entirely empty.
Then, starting with 1993, won two series over the next 15 playoffs while missing the tournament five times, trying and trying with the same core before concerted efforts to replenish could not prevent the whole thing from crashing down.
A quarter of a century later, that Boston era provides a cautionary tale for the Rangers, whose management no longer can operate under the pretext that this core is just a free-agent signing or a single buyout away from a return to serious contention.
This must be a risk/reward summer for general manager Jeff Gorton, who will need ownership’s blessing to shake the team out of its comfort zone after its third tournament elimination by a third different conference opponent over the past three years.
Derek Stepan should not be turned into a scapegoat for the second-round defeat to Ottawa. Stepan is a perfectly acceptable top-six center for a contending team. His per-game production of 0.25 goals, 0.45 assists and 0.7 points is commensurate with his role. He is one of just 24 active centers to have played 500 or more games averaging at least 0.7 points per. And he does this while facing the opposition’s top offensive match essentially every time out.
You will notice if and when he is gone and, perhaps more to the point, so will the coach, Alain Vigneault — who leaned on No. 21 to a fault this postseason.
But if management believes Oscar Lindberg can be trusted to play the middle on one of the top three lines, then the Blueshirts have no option other than to dangle Stepan as bait to attract a top-pair right defenseman. Aggressively so. And sooner rather than later since everywhere you turn, teams are looking for the same commodity.
Lindberg, the 25-year-old whom then GM and current president Sather stole from the Coyotes in exchange for Ethan Werek in May 2011, was under-utilized in the playoffs even while starring in a limited fourth-line role as the pivots above him on the depth chart struggled.
But then, Lindberg, who is skating on a line with Nicklas Backstrom and William Nylander for Team Sweden at the World Championships, has been under-utilized in each of his two seasons in the NHL — shunted out of position to left wing on the third line as a rookie then used exclusively on the fourth line this year after missing the first couple of weeks rehabbing from offseason surgery.
Ordinarily, the Rangers might have time to delay their decision regarding Lindberg’s ceiling. But not with the expansion draft looming and the Blueshirts unable to protect the Swede unless another forward destined to be protected is traded. And if you’re talking Kevin Hayes, the return for the third-year American likely wouldn’t be close to the yield for Stepan.
Lindberg recorded three goals and an assist in 12 playoff games in which he got 9:54 of ice per while dominating his fourth-line matchups. The center received a total of 1:01 of power-play time even as the club went 3-for-39 with the man advantage, even while the second unit was not on for a single power-play goal during the tournament.
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And this following two years in which No. 24 played 1,411 minutes at five-on-five, but just 46 minutes with Rick Nash, 82 minutes with Mats Zuccarello and 98 minutes with Chris Kreider (per stats.hockeyanalysis.com).
It would be a shame for the Rangers to lose Lindberg now to an expansion team because they haven’t seen enough of him in high-leverage situations to be confident in his ability to play up. It would be a shame to lose a young, potential top-nine player on a contract that likely wouldn’t amount to more than a $1.125 million cap hit per on a two-year deal after this one expires at the end of June.
Mistakes of commission are one thing. They happen. But the Blueshirts cannot afford mistakes of omission in plotting the future.
Did Hayes, who simply is not forceful enough using his combination of size, reach and puck skills in getting the puck to the net, do enough to warrant confidence that he can move into a top-six role if Stepan is moved? Shouldn’t there have been many more in the wake of that unforgettable power drive, spinning slam-dunk against the Islanders and Jaro Halak at the Coliseum late in Hayes’ 2014-15 rookie season?
That remains to be seen, but Hayes adapted well to a dramatic change in the way he was utilized by Vigneault. In 2015-16, Hayes had a 61.7 relative offensive zone start percentage that was the highest on the team among forwards. But last year, Hayes’ usage flipped, No. 13’s relative offensive-zone starts at 40.7 percent, the lowest among the club’s forwards. And he responded with dramatically improved work at the dots (45.7 from 36.0) and increased production (17-32-49 from 14-22-36).
So maybe there is more to come with an increase in responsibility. Maybe there is more to come from all the younger guys if they are leaned on more by the coach. And maybe an important part of the equation revolves around management’s willingness and ability to create additional space in which these younger Rangers can blossom.