MONTREAL — The league that promotes its hard cap as the mechanism that enforces unparalleled parity is also the one that has produced the fewest number of champions over the past eight seasons.
That’s right, while four franchises have won the Stanley Cup over the past eight years, with Chicago a three-time winner, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles two-time winners and Boston having snuck in there once, the NFL has produced seven Super Bowl champions, with only New England a two-timer; the NBA over the same span has produced six titlists, the Lakers and Miami each winning twice; and no-cap baseball has produced six World Series winners, with only the three-time champ Giants coming out on top more than once.
Though Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews have crashed the party for the first time and should maintain the overarching profile they earned as teammates in the World Cup, this shapes up as a tournament of, by and for chalk, even if it is important for the league to have its five Canadian participants and important for Edmonton and Toronto to be in the mix.
It is a year of change in qualifiers — seven new ones — but if you were a betting man and were given the choice of Washington-Pittsburgh-Chicago or the field to emerge with the Stanley Cup, which way would you go?
The favorites
Listen, if the Capitals are unable to get out of the second round this time, if they are unable to get out of the East this time, if they aren’t going to win to the Cup for the first time in their 45-year history, then when, if ever?
If Alex Ovechkin, who never seems to be on a team that wins a championship, isn’t hoisting the chalice in June, then exactly when and how will it happen? The Washington managements responsible for building this team have methodically constructed a deep, versatile club filled with myriad weapons that go 12 deep up front and six deep on the back end. They can outskate you and they can pound you. They make you pay on the power play. And Braden Holtby is as good as there’s been over the last two seasons. The question is whether the goaltender can consistently hit the high notes in the playoffs. If not now, when, and that applies to all of them?
If it is possible for a team with the résumé of the Blackhawks to surprise, then that is what they did this season, surging to the top of the West with a largely unknown supporting cast following yet another cap-induced remodeling job. While McDavid, Matthews, Sidney Crosby and perhaps Patrik Laine were stealing the 2016-17 spotlight, Patrick Kane remained high on the marquee. Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov are the top-end support guys behind Kane, Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa while Duncan Keith fronts a defense that’s always significantly more than the sum of its parts.
The contenders
The defending Cup champion Penguins, who a month ago seemed in perfect position for a repeat behind Crosby and an abundance of speed and skill, suffered a grievous wound when Kris Letang was ruled out of the playoffs because of a neck injury.
The last couple of weeks weren’t especially good, but it would be a mistake to overlook the Blue Jackets and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, at least through the first two rounds. Yes, we know this is the new John Tortorella, but will the coach be able to resist slashing his bench to a debilitating-for-the-long-run 10 forwards and five defensemen, as has been his MO through his playoff career?
How many last rides will this make for the Sharks, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, each of whom are pending free agents? And similarly, how many for the Ducks and the Ryan Getzlaf-Corey Perry partnership that’s been buttressed by Ryan Kesler and a cast of a hundred defensemen?
If everything breaks right, there are …
Well, there are the Rangers, who could wind their way out of the coveted crossover if Henrik Lundqvist and the defense elevate, and there are the Wild, whose high/low swings were much more dramatic on their way to a 106-point season than the Blueshirts experienced this year. For Minnesota, an occasional two rounds of playoffs does not represent adequate payoff on the Zach Parise-Ryan Suter contracts.
There are the Oilers, too thin on the back and who probably aren’t ready as a unit for this prime-time experience, but in Cam Talbot have a goaltender who is primed to make a run in his first postseason as a No. 1.
They won’t be, but should just be happy to be here
The Senators played the most boring hockey around in adapting to coach Guy Boucher’s restrictive system, but despite Ottawa owning the best defenseman in the world in Erik Karlsson, you have got to (try to) sprinkle in a few goals here and there in the playoffs. The Bruins lack the depth behind Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand to make serious noise, the Canadiens are far too light behind Carey Price, the Flames are not equipped to go deep and neither again are the Predators or Blues, veteran teams with modest ceilings.
And everyone’s darlings, the Maple Leafs, whose boundless enthusiasm hopefully won’t be dampened by the moment.
Larry Brooks picks
Eastern Conference
Quarterfinals
Washington over Toronto in 5
Columbus over Pittsburgh in 6
Rangers over Montreal in 6
Boston over Ottawa in 7
Semifinals
Washington over Columbus in 5
Rangers over Boston in 6
Final
Washington over Rangers in 5
Western Conference
Quarterfinals
Chicago over Nashville in 5
Minnesota over St. Louis in 7
Anaheim over Calgary in 7
Edmonton over San Jose in 7
Semifinals
Chicago over Minnesota in 5
Anaheim over Edmonton in 6
Final
Chicago over Anaheim in 6
Stanley Cup final
Chicago over Washington in 6
Brett Cyrgalis picks
Eastern Conference
Quarterfinals
Canadiens over Rangers in 7
Senators over Bruins in 6
Capitals over Maple Leafs in 5
Blue Jackets over Penguins in 7
Semifinals
Canadiens over Senators in 6
Capitals over Blue Jackets in 6
Final
Capitals over Canadiens in 6
Western Conference
Quarterfinals
Blackhawks over Predators in 5
Wild over Blues 7
Ducks over Flames in 5
Oilers over Sharks in 7
Semifinals
Blackhawks over Wild in 6
Ducks over Oilers in 7
Final
Blackhawks over Ducks in 6
Stanley Cup final
Capitals over Blackhawks in 6