Here is the thing that many might not want to admit about this Islanders’ season — every decision is going back to how it will effect John Tavares and his contract situation.
The superlative captain is in the final year of his extremely club-friendly contract, carrying a $5.5 million salary-cap hit. He could have signed an extension back on July 1, but he’s prudently weighing his options before committing to a seven- or eight-year deal, either with the Islanders or on the free-agent market next summer. At 27 years old and in the prime of his career, he is going to max out his money and term no matter where he signs.
But the looming issue is where the Islanders are going to play in the future, with the relationship at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center having deteriorated over their first two years as an urbanite franchise. Co-owners Jon Ledecky and Scott Malkin have submitted a bid to develop a new arena at Belmont Park, but the decision from New York State could take months.
Tavares wants to know where this team is going to play down the line, and what the on-ice product is going to look like after they missed the postseason last year by one point following a turnaround after the January firing of coach Jack Capuano. That will influence both general manager Garth Snow in making his personnel decisions, as well as the owners to figure out a permanent home. It’s a fluid situation to start the year, and one that is going to influence every move during it.
Offense
Snow made a big upgrade when he found a legit top-end scorer to compliment Tavares, trading to get Jordan Eberle out of Edmonton. If he and Anders Lee can flank Tavares with efficiency, then the offense can be led from the top. The depth up front is found in youth, with a lot going to be asked of rookie Matthew Barzal, as well as second-year pros, Josh Ho-Sang and Anthony Beauvillier. All three are dazzling talents, but unproven through long stretches in the league. Last year’s big signees, Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera, could also help with some production, as the fourth line of Nikolay Kulemin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck focus on bringing energy.
Defense
It’s hard to quantify the loss of integral defenseman and team leader Travis Hamonic, traded to the Flames for draft picks that still haven’t been used for an immediate upgrade (but surely will be at some point). Hamonic not only ate up important minutes, he was a vocal and emotional leader. But it does create ice time for youngsters Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech, as well as Scott Mayfield. The blueline is still led by top pair Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy, even if Boychuk hasn’t been able to keep up the production (or health) that he showed in the first year of his seven-year, $42 million deal signed in 2015. Also mixing in will be steady staple Thomas Hickey and veteran Dennis Seidenberg.
Goaltending
No longer does the team have to deal with the three-headed monster from last season after Jean-Francois Berube was taken by the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft — after Snow traded assets to make sure it happened. Now it is just Thomas Greiss (on the first year of his three-year, $10 million extension) and Jaroslav Halak (in the final year of his deal with a $4.5 million cap hit). It’s likely going to be a close competition for ice time, but it would be easier for Snow to trade Halak during the season if he plays well, while Greiss shows he can hold down the fort as the true No. 1. Regardless, they’re going to need good goaltending from both of them to start the season on the right foot.
Coaching
In his first full year behind the bench, Doug Weight has revamped his staff and is working tirelessly to make this season a success. He brought in some people he has known a long time to be his assistants, including Kelly Buchberger, Luke Richardson, Fred Brathwaite and even former forward for the Rangers and Devils, Scott Gomez. Always a players-friendly coach, Weight now has the full responsibility of this young team with a lot of strong personalities to juggle. Even he isn’t entirely sure how he’s going to deal with it all.
Keys to season
– Most important offensive player: John Tavares. If the captain can stay healthy all year, he is still one of the elite players in the league and can contest for the Hart Trophy.
– Most important defensive player: Nick Leddy. Asked to play in all situations, the slick-skating lefty is going to eat up the most minutes on the back end.
– Top rookie: Matthew Barzal. With some real NHL experience going to Josh Ho-Sang and Anthony Beauvillier last season, the spotlight now turns to Barzal to emerge.
– Key coaching decision: How to play the two goalies at the start of the season, finding a balance between showcasing Halak and establishing Greiss as the No. 1.
Prediction
The Metropolitan Division has gotten better, and the Islanders are going to push for a playoff spot but barely miss out again.