You go through the Top Fifty lists and maybe, just maybe, Ryan McDonagh will turn up somewhere in the high 40s, but probably not. Or maybe in one of the lists compiled by possession-number freaks, Kevin Shattenkirk will get a similar designation. But that’s it, even if that’s a stretch.
The fact is the Rangers, who have been pretty-pretty-pretty-pretty good for a pretty-pretty-pretty-pretty long time without anything but a single finals appearance and single first-overall to show for it, don’t have a singular, dynamic game-changer in the lineup in this era of singular, dynamic game-changers across the NHL landscape.
And you wonder why the Blueshirts are willing to take a leap of faith in 18-year-old Filip Chytil, as electric a child prodigy as has made his way onto Broadway since who, Marc Savard, two decades ago? (He was that as a kid here, all right, don’t let your memory deceive you.)
Just because it has been said before does not mean it is not worth saying again. The Rangers are more of an unknown quantity than they have been since John Tortorella’s first years behind the bench bridging the dawn of the decade, when those teams either did or did not just scrape into the playoffs.
And while the intent is to pass the torch to a new generation, while you could say that the burden will be borne by centers and defensemen who are being challenged to step into roles they have never had before, it is still the most senior Ranger who remains the most important Ranger and carries the biggest burden of all.
At 35, and about to become the first goaltender in franchise history to start 12 consecutive season-openers, Henrik Lundqvist remains this team’s game-changer entering a season in which The King is going to be challenged to change the story line from a year ago.
In that regard, the more things change, the less things change in Rangerstown.
Offense
The trade of Derek Stepan, reliable if as dynamic as a metronome while posting 0.7 points per game over a worthy 515-game career on Broadway, is going to have a cascading effect down the middle. Mika Zibanejad, 0.64 PPG over the last two years, will be a first-liner for the first time in his career. Kevin Hayes, who turned in a much-improved third season, will be asked to step up into second-line duty.
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And since right-handed Zibanejad (57.4 percent in five-on-five defensive-zone draws last year) and the left-handed Hayes (58.8 D-zone starts) will be used at the dots in their own end, this means that young Chytil and linemates Rick Nash and Mats Zuccarello will get a vast number of offensive-zone starts off which they will need to produce. The wingers appear deep and solid, but that presumes both Pavel Buchnevich and Jimmy Vesey progress off promising rookie seasons through which both wavered and that Chris Kreider and J.T. Miller continue to accelerate their emergence. David Desharnais is being given the opportunity to revive his career in a fourth-line offensive role.
Even with changes in personnel, the Rangers remain a speed-and-finesse proposition. There was no effort put into transforming the team into more of a sandpaper, straight-line, shoot-first structure. You’re still going to see too much selflessness with the puck, an abundance of cross-slot plays and a plethora of Michael Grabner breakaways.
Defense
It’s all about not having to defend nearly as much as the Rangers have defended the last two years, isn’t it? That’s the sole reason the Blueshirts granted Shattenkirk, average at best in coverage, the largest cap-hit deal they’ve ever given a blueliner at $6.65 million per for four seasons. McDonagh, in the penultimate year of one of the league’s most team-friendly contracts ($4.7M per), should prosper from skating with a mobile partner after years of having Dan Girardi on his right side. The Brady Skjei-Brendan Smith second pair should be a strength, with Smith providing muscle otherwise absent in the refreshed Top Four that two years ago opened as McDonagh-Girardi and Marc Staal-Dan Boyle. Staal remains, now on the third pair beside 21-year-old righty Anthony DeAngelo, a dynamic skater and puck mover who nevertheless is with his third organization in three years.
Goaltending
You’re darn right. Lundqvist outplayed Carey Price in the six-game, first-round victory over Montreal. But the six games against Ottawa were uneven and more of a reflection of the 2016-17 season in which the King had 29 starts with a save percentage of at least .920 but 12 under .870 and 22 under .900. The Blueshirts won’t be able to survive that type of erratic play from Lundqvist, who deep into his career must somehow improve his puck management. And there is a high bar for newly installed backup Ondrej Pavelec to clear following stellar runs as understudies by Cam Talbot and Antti Raanta.
Coaching
Alain Vigneault is the first coach to start five consecutive seasons behind the bench on Broadway since Phil Watson (1955-59) nearly six decades ago, with the team cast in his image. The players respect Vigneault, and they enjoy playing for him. Vigneault is a pro. Yes, if this collapses, chances are he won’t be around at the finish, and chances are that he knows it. But don’t bet on that. Lindy Ruff, an assistant with a head coach’s pedigree commensurate with Vigneault’s, takes over the defense.
Keys to the season
– Most important offensive player: It is no contradiction to cite Shattenkirk, who is being counted on to drive possession from the back end on an even-strength attack and to turn an inconsistent power play into a lethal weapon from his perch at the point.
– Most important defensive player: It is incumbent upon Skjei, so good as a rookie last season, to improve and morph into a reliable defender in a sophomore season in which he will assume far more matchup responsibility in stepping up to the second pair from a sheltered third tandem.
– Top rookie: The Rangers will do everything they can to put Chytil into a position to succeed, and are probably paying less attention to the 10-game contract kick-in than you are.
– Top coaching decision: Riding it out, showing utmost confidence in J.T. Miller and being unafraid to sit Staal if the veteran blueliner’s play merits it.
Prediction
The Rangers burst out of the gate in each of the last two seasons, 13-4 last year off a dazzling offensive outburst and 14-2-2 two years ago on the back of Lundqvist’s best start of his career. Playing 10 of the first 13 at the Garden this time, they will need that boost again. The Blueshirts could go either way here. If the centers can’t handle it, Shattenkirk can’t handle the first pair and Lundqvist fades, the party will be over. If, however, more players than not take the next step and Lundqvist reasserts himself, the Rangers will be formidable. I’m saying there will be enough of the latter to ensure an eighth straight playoff berth.